BC's 2024 Provincial Election

We need electoral reform in BC as soon as possible. BC came dangerously close to putting anti-science pro-nimby conservative nutjobs in power. It is no small thing to endanger the future of a province with millions of people over an inability to enact electoral reform. The real harm that a Con victory would have caused people for four whole years cannot be understated. The Legislative Assembly of British Columbia has the authority to pass electoral reform without subjecting the decision to an unnecessary referendum.

Ridings where Split Votes made a difference

These ridings either had their progressive vote split between NDP and Green, or their conservative vote split by independents:

№ Riding Name NDP Vote Green Vote Progressive Vote
Total		 Con Vote Con
Margin		 Progressive
Margin		 Con+Ind.
Vote		 Progressive Margin
over Con + Ind.		 Hypothetical Flip w/
Ranked Choice Voting
1 Courtenay-Comox 13,389 7,202 20,591 13,481 92 7,110 (20.48%) 14,127 6,464 (18.62%) Con → NDP
2 North Island 13,461 2,396 15,857 14,099 638 1,758 (5.87%) 14,099 1,758 (5.87%) Con → NDP
3 Maple Ridge East 11,960 1,626 13,586 12,056 96 1,530 (5.97%) 12,056 1,530 (5.97%) Con → NDP
4 Langley-Willowbrook 10,111 1,671 11,782 10,977 866 805 (3.54%) 10,977 805 (3.54%) Con → NDP
5 Columbia River-Revelstoke 8,097 1,430 9,527 8,768 671 759 (4.15%) 8,768 759 (4.15%) Con → NDP
6 Kamloops Centre 10,369 2,597 12,966 12,373 2,004 593 (2.34%) 12,373 593 (2.34%) Con → NDP
7 Surrey-Cloverdale 9,679 1,150 10,829 10,266 587 563 (2.65%) 10,419 410 (1.93%) Con → NDP
8 Langley-Walnut Grove 10,946 1,254 12,200 12,116 1,170 84 (0.34%) 12,252 -52 (-0.21%) Stays Con
9 Boundary-Similkameen 10,497 1,454 11,951 11,936 1,439 15 (0.06%) 12,715 -764 (-3.1%) Stays Con
10 Richmond-Steveston 10,332 803 11,135 9,848 -484 1,287 (5.51%) 12,202 -1,067 (-4.57%) NDP → Con
11 Kelowna Centre 10,993 1,111 12,104 11,031 38 1,073 (4.17%) 13,643 -1,539 (-5.98%) Stays Con
12 Penticton-Summerland 11,296 1,472 12,768 11,612 316 1,156 (4.12%) 15,304 -2,536 (-9.03%) Stays Con
13 Vernon-Lumby 11,836 0 11,836 11,359 -477 477 (1.72%) 15,890 -4,054 (-14.62%) NDP → Con

With RCV (Ranked Choice Voting), a probable outcome would have been that the NDP picks up a net of 5 seats (NDP flips 7, Conservatives flip 2). The outcome, with RCV, would have been the NDP at 52 seats, the Cons at 39 seats, and the Greens at 2 seats. Progressives would have held 54 seats (58%) in the legislature, instead of the 49 seats today.

With PR (Proportional Representation), a likely outcome would have been the NDP at 43 seats, the Cons at 42 seats, and the Greens at 8 seats. With PR, progressives would have had a slightly thinner majority of 51 seats (55%). PR would effectively have required some kind of agreement between the NDP and Greens, in order to govern. I favour PR.

On a side note, it’s highly probable that RCV (or PR) would lead to more Green votes, and the Green party would most likely have ended up with more seats, especially since the risk of vote wastage with vote splitting often steers many people away from smaller parties, even if they really like a smaller party.

Independent Candidates

Most independent candidates held conservative views.

I’ve excluded the Ladysmith-Oceanside riding from the list above, since the independent spoiler candidate there (Adam Walker) was a former NDP MLA who had been expelled from the NDP. This riding was won by the NDP, so Adam Walker’s presence did not spoil this seat for progressive voters.

The two ridings which would have flipped from the NDP to the Cons were:

The four ridings above, won by the Cons, which would have stayed with the Cons, that had independent candidates were:

  • Penticton-Summerland: former BC United candidate Tracy St. Claire, Roger Harrington (FB), and Anna Paddon ran here. Anna Paddon got 144 votes, and she seems to have been a progressive candidate. Roger Harrington who got 827 votes, on the other hand, appears to be conservative who’s re-posted insane conspiracy theory videos on Facebook, and seems to be a supporter of Corinne Mori, a conservative and anti-vaxxer who ran as an independent for the Kootenay Central riding.
  • Kelowna Centre: Michael Humer was the independent candidate here. He said he was “running to represent the fiscally responsible, socially inclusive centre-right voter”. He doesn’t seem as extreme or insane as the typical BC Conservative, so it’s possible that under RCV, votes for him would have trickled down to both the NDP and the Cons.
  • Boundary-Similkameen: former PPC candidate Sean Taylor ran here, and got 779 votes. The PPC is a single-issue far-right party that calls for a moratorium on immigration.
  • Langley-Walnut Grove: Carlos Suaréz Rubio was the independent here, but his page says he’s with BC Cons, even though Misty Van Popta was the BC Con for this riding. No idea what the story was here; perhaps his candidacy was rejected by the Cons, and so he decided to run as an independent.

Sources

This is based on the final vote count published on the Elections BC website. You can also explore the election results with an interactive map on Global News.

You can check out the Python code for this page here.